What is a common misinterpretation of the p-value?

MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT THE P VALUE There is a misconception that a very small p value means the difference between groups is highly relevant. Looking at the p value alone deviates our attention from the effect size.
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What is a misinterpretation of the p-value?

The most common (mis)interpretations are 'the p-value is the probability that your results occurred by chance'. Or 'the p-value is the probability that the null hypothesis is true'. Both of these are disastrously wrong [6].
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What is a misunderstanding of the p-value?

The p-value does not indicate the size or importance of the observed effect. A small p-value can be observed for an effect that is not meaningful or important. In fact, the larger the sample size, the smaller the minimum effect needed to produce a statistically significant p-value (see effect size).
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What is an incorrect interpretation of p-values?

Here's a quick way to tell if you are misinterpreting P values in hypothesis tests. If you interpret P values as the probability that the null hypothesis is true or the probability that rejecting the null hypothesis is a mistake, those are incorrect interpretations.
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What are the criticism of p-values?

Other common criticisms are that P-values force users to focus on irrelevant hypotheses and overstate evidence against those hypotheses.
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p-Value (Statistics made simple)

What is the interpretation of the p-value?

A p-value less than 0.05 is typically considered to be statistically significant, in which case the null hypothesis should be rejected. A p-value greater than 0.05 means that deviation from the null hypothesis is not statistically significant, and the null hypothesis is not rejected.
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What are the drawbacks of p-value?

A p value provides at best a crude orientation regarding the probable realness of specific group differ- ences, but is too simplistic to explain the “big (clinical) picture”. Specifically, p values must not be mistaken as a substitute for critical appraisal in many crucial aspects.
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What do P-values not tell you?

The P values do not tell how 2 groups are different. The degree of difference is referred as 'effect size'. Statistical significance is not equal to scientific significance. Smaller P values do not imply the presence of a more important effect, and larger P values do not imply a lack of importance.
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What makes p-value not significant?

If the p-value is less than 0.05, it is judged as “significant,” and if the p-value is greater than 0.05, it is judged as “not significant.” However, since the significance probability is a value set by the researcher according to the circumstances of each study, it does not necessarily have to be 0.05.
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Is the p-value of 0.03 significant?

The p-value obtained from the data is judged against the alpha. If alpha=0.05 and p=0.03, then statistical significance is achieved. If alpha=0.01, and p=0.03, statistical significance is not achieved.
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What is the fallacy of p-values?

Fallacy: A high P value proves that the null hypothesis is true. No. A high P value means that if the null hypothesis were true, it would not be surprising to observe the treatment effect seen in this experiment. But that does not prove the null hypothesis is true.
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Why is p-value of 0.05 bad?

Keeping the significance threshold at the conventional value of 0.05 would lead to a large number of false-positive results. For example, if 1,000,000 tests are carried out, then 5% of them (that is, 50,000 tests) are expected to lead to p < 0.05 by chance when the null hypothesis is actually true for all these tests.
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Is p-value always accurate?

No. The p-value only tells you how likely the data you have observed is to have occurred under the null hypothesis. If the p-value is below your threshold of significance (typically p < 0.05), then you can reject the null hypothesis, but this does not necessarily mean that your alternative hypothesis is true.
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What type of error does the p-value represent?

For example, suppose that a vaccine study produced a P value of 0.04. This P value indicates that if the vaccine had no effect, you'd obtain the observed difference or more in 4% of studies due to random sampling error.
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What problems are there if we only look at P values to interpret study findings?

The p value is sensitive to sample size and variability in the sample. A very large sample size with a very small effect size can yield a significant p value. Such results may offer little inference in scientific studies and are likely to be irreproducible.
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Why is my p-value insignificant?

An insignificant p-value means that if the null hypothesis is in fact true, the data look pretty much as they should be expected to look like (regarding the specific test statistic at least; they may look different in other respects). They are compatible with the null hypothesis, they don't deliver evidence against it.
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How to interpret the p-value?

Being a probability, P can take any value between 0 and 1. Values close to 0 indicate that the observed difference is unlikely to be due to chance, whereas a P value close to 1 suggests no difference between the groups other than due to chance.
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What factors affect p-value?

What influences the p-value?
  • Sample size: the bigger the group, the faster you'll get statistically significant results with small differences— and vice versa.
  • Effect size: the bigger the effect size, the faster you'll get statistically significant results, even with smaller groups— and vice versa.
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Which p-value indicates a lack of significance?

Generally speaking, If your p-value is less than 0.05, the results are statistically significant, and you reject the null hypothesis. However, when it comes to interpreting the exact value, there are some shades of grey.
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Why do people misinterpret p-values?

For example, many authors will misinterpret P = 0.70 from a test of the null hypothesis as evidence for no effect, when in fact it indicates that, even though the null hypothesis is compatible with the data under the assumptions used to compute the P value, it is not the hypothesis most compatible with the data—that ...
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How can p-values be misleading?

“A p-value of 0.01 could mean the result is 20 percent likely to be true, 80 percent likely to be true or 0.1 percent likely to be true — all with the same p-value. The p-value alone doesn't tell you how true your result is.” The p-value does not tell you whether something is true.
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What if the p-value is not significant?

A p-value > 0.05 would be interpreted by many as "not statistically significant," meaning that there was not sufficiently strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the groups are different.
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Why is p-value controversial?

The p-value is innocent; the problem arises from its misuse and misinterpretation. The way that p-values have been informally defined and interpreted appears to have led to tremendous confusion and controversy regarding their place in statistical analysis. KEYWORDS: Decision rule.
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Does effect size matter if p-value is not significant?

While a P value can inform the reader whether an effect exists, the P value will not reveal the size of the effect. In reporting and interpreting studies, both the substantive significance (effect size) and statistical significance (P value) are essential results to be reported.
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Can p-value be too low?

It's entirely possible to have p-values that low, especially if you just have a lot of data. I've seen p-values on the order of 10 or lower. In some sense, this is a limitation of the whole concept of p-values: those impressive-seeming numbers can only really tell you that the null hypothesis is not correct.
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